Posts tagged ‘Upsets’
Tonight’s card carries a huge ACC game between the Clemson Tigers and the Wake Forest Deamon Deacons. Wake Forest is the favorite with a spread of 2.5, and they should be playing at home. However, I want to play the underdog and take the dynamic backfield in Clemson to upset the Deacons! James Davis and C.J. Spiller should both be able to play and they will run all over Wake Forest, just as my beloved Midshipmen did just a couple weeks ago.
Screw the fact that Wake Forest was an ACC favorite, Clemson has a shot at the title too. Using simple logic of proof: if Shun White of Navy can run on Wake, then James Davis can run on Wake. Not to mention that Clemson’s defense is really no slouch.
Bet with your head, not over it. Good luck.
Yesterday was a little off as I went 1-2 in college ball. Maryland was completely blanked, which I mentioned was a realistic possibility, and Rice was a play around game. Navy pulled out the win and I am fortunate enough to have a few home teams that allow me to be the homer I love to be. This week in the NFL I like a few plays in the early games.
Washington (+250) –Parlay–M.L. and OVER
All of these plays are upsets, which I love. I don’t think Buffalo should be an underdog against an Arizona team that lost Boldin and is still depleted from the routing they took last Sunday. I like Seattle because Hasselback gets two of his receivers back and, well, I just don’t like the GIants. Washington is a six point underdog and they continue to be overlooked. I like their running game against the Eagles. I like the Redskins linebackers against an injured Brian Westbrook. And I like Washington’s offensive line play against the blitz. What I do not like is the lack of pressure that McNabb will feel from the Jason Taylor-less defensive line. And the lockdown corner that placed a blanket on T.O. last week, Shawn Springs, may not play. Good luck.
Last week’s plays were a little twisted. I picked the big upsets, in both college and pro football, but couldn’t pick the easy ones. I went 3-4 on college plays with the Maryland win over Clemson really helping me out. In professional ball I went 2-2, with the two Washington plays bringing my record to .500. I believe that gives me an overall record of 5-7 on NFL plays and 4-6 on college football plays.
I’ll be putting up some more picks for this week’s football games, both levels. There is already a couple games I like in the NFL, including Buffalo (+1), Seattle (+7), and Washington (+5). In the college ranks, why stop rolling on Maryland? I look at it as riding the wave while it’s still high, which will give you a stupid cliche as reason to stick with Washington (NFL) and Maryland (CFB).
Yesterday was a crazy day in college football. I was able to go just 3-4 on my posted plays, a day that I said was going to be a little off. And I knew things would happen like they did with Penn State, the line was 15 before the game and the Nittany Lions only win by two touchdowns. It’s things like that that make picking so frusturating. Anyway, here are a few NFL plays for today:
San Francisco (+4.5) The Saints are beat up and Niners are looking good. O’Sullivan has a high rating against a team that gives up 250 passing yds. a game. Saints also allow 5 yds. per carry to a guy that leads the league in rushing. I like the upset.
Houston (+7) It’s possible! The Jags came off a win last week that took a lot out of them. Houston were just a mistake shy of beating the Titans last week. If you don’t take the upset, take the points.
Washington (+10.5) I personally feel like that’s too many points in a division rival game. I don’t want to be a homer, but I think the Skins win this game. Don’t think so? I’m hoping they won’t lose by more than a TD, take the points.
Washington (+380) I’m a homer.
Good luck to everbody. Bet with your head, not over it.
Bowling Green (-3) They’re coming off a bye and Wyoming is pretty bad, BG covers.
Virginia (+7) UVA has faced good teams (see: USC) and they know how to play, Duke does not. UVA may lose, but not by a touchdown.
Georgia (-6) I like Georgia over Alabama by a touchdown, maybe 10 points.
Maryland (+11) The question is whether the Terps can stop Spiller and Davis. 11 is too many points.
Maryland (+350) I think the Terps will pull out the upset this week. Clemson has a good backfield, but Bowden is scrambling for wins so far this year.
New Mexico St. (+135) New Mexico lost their QB and is definitely beat up. NM St. always plays them tough and this game won’t be any different. I like NM St. with the upset.
Penn State (-16.5) Nittany Lions are at home with the “White Out” and Illinois didn’t have a defense to stop Mizzou earlier in the season. Penn St. puts up 50 points a game. I like Penn St. to cover.
Good luck to everybody. Bet with your head, not over it.
So last week wasn’t so good, especially the college half. So what’s the easiest fix? Give it another shot. It seems like you would be fine this week if you picked the home team for every game, but watch out for a few games on Sunday. Pay attention to these:
Arizona @ Washington (-3)
Both teams are coming off some pretty nice wins in Week 2, but this is more of a pick ’em game with the edge going to D.C. because it’s played on their turf. The truth is, Washington’s secondary isn’t all that great. The guys going against that secondary are half past great. That match-up alone could prove the outcome of this game. However, the Skins have a lot of confidence this week and they look to shake up Kurt Warner. Andre Carter and Jason Taylor on the ends will mean trouble against a quarterback, Warner, that is 87-years-old with lead in his shoes. Stick with the Skins, 24 – 21
Tampa Bay @ Chicago (-3)
Again, the favorites are do to the homefield. But the Bears are no slouch this year. I have zero confidence in Kyle Orton, but I think he can control the ball. Not to mention that Matt Forte is showing to be the 2008 version of Adrian Peterson. Tampa Bay has a good defense but Derrick Brooks (future HOF) has a hamstring issue and he won’t have the range that he normally does. With Kyle Orton looking to pass to his backs and tight ends often, Brooks might not be able to hold up with their speed this Sunday. The flip side is that Brian Griese knows the Bears defense from when he used to play in Chicago. This will be more of a defensive battle. Take the Bears, 23 – 20
Cleveland @ Baltimore (-2)
People are already labeling the Browns as “busts” for the season, yet their first two opponents could very well be the same teams that are playing in the Super Bowl. So, lay off. The Browns will smack up the Ravens on their home field in Baltimore. Cleveland might not be a Super Bowl team this year, but they can damn sure beat the Flacco-driven Ravens. Who have the Ravens beat this season? The Bengals (two-person applause). The Browns, however, allowed only ten points last week against the Steelers. Stop looking down on the Browns and realize that they will have no problem beating crappy teams. Browns, 23 – 14
Pittsburgh @ Philadelphia (-3)
I thought Philly’s game last Monday was awesome. Sure they lost, but McNabb looked like himself and that is always exciting. Their defense is never their weak point, but their receivers are. The Steelers, on the other hand, look like a SB contending team. Roethlisberger’s shoulder is banged up, which is not a good thing against someone like Philly. I like both teams, both quarterbacks, both running backs, both defenses, but the Steelers get the edge when it comes to wide receivers. The game will be close, and the Eagles will probably win, but when it comes to betting purposes I would take the upset. Pittsburgh, 20 – 17